Edition 1 - High-Level Draft Considerations

Tuesday, December 17th, 2024

So there's a lot of ways I've been thinking about this draft, but its mainly through the lens(es) of two positions: O-Line and Wide Receiver. Of course, the Patriots need a lot of help across the board (with the exception of a couple positions that we can get into another time), but - to me, at least - O-Line and WR are the two positions holding this team back the most. That's not to say that should we get a great O-Lineman and Wide Receiver we're suddenly looking at a playoff team - that is likely far from the case - but with the flashes we have seen from Drake Maye and the running game, along with a couple signs of life on Defense (particularly with Christian Gonzalez) it seems that these two positions are the most significant factors keeping the Patriots from being competitive in more games, and from being able to consistently beat bad teams (which, I recognize, doesn't sound like a lot to ask).

First, let's get a couple pre-cursors out of the way. Importantly, we do not know the draft order. It seems as if the Patriots will likely be drafting in the top 5, almost certainly in the top 10, especially with a tough schedule featuring the Bills, Chargers, and Bills again in the coming weeks, but it is impossible to know where exactly things will shake out (let alone what trades might be made). Additionally, there is the ever-unpredictable factor of injuries, which it is not even worth delving into much. As a final disclaimer, I am not going to have much in-depth analysis of film in this post – this is meant to cover high level thoughts and some other unplanned ramblings.

I'm going to organize this through the two positions I mentioned, with one exception: Travis Hunter. So let's start there. This all depends on how you think Hunter will be utilized at the NFL level, but he won't be a two-way player to the extent he has been at Colorado, that much is clear. The most likely outcome seems to be that Hunter will be a Cornerback who might get rotated in for offensive plays (sort of like the Patriots' own Marcus Jones, except way better at Cornerback and presumably utilized a lot more on offense... so not much like Marcus Jones). If I'm being honest, I don't want Travis Hunter. I wouldn't necessarily be upset at the pick (depending on who we would be leaving on the draft board) and the pairing of Hunter and Gonzalez would certainly be a great watch, but the two main position groups I mentioned - WR and O-Line - would go largely unaddressed. Hunter is unlikely to contribute consistently enough to the offensive game to really play a factor. Also, it feels almost inevitable that Hunter will go too high in this draft. He is widely considered a top-5, can't-miss pick, and I truly feel like I am missing something. Don't get me wrong, he is a freak athlete - you can't play every snap of a college football game without being one - but is he a top-5 pick if you consider him as a Cornerback alone? The well-deserved hype that brought Hunter a Heisman this year reflects a two-way player who dominated on both sides of the ball this year (tallying 116 receiving yards and 3 TDs on 10 catches, along with an INT all against Oklahoma State), and based on his draft position in almost all Mock Drafts I have seen, he is being drafted with that bias in mind. There will be another post diving further into Travis Hunter, looking at past CBs drafted so high, but this feels like it would be an overdraft should the Patriots take him (assuming no trade-down).

There are two options I believe the Patriots should consider, and a lot of this revolves around their draft position when all is said and done. Option 1: draft a WR, sign a proven O-Lineman. Option 2: draft an O-Lineman, sign a physical WR. I’ll go into both cases, but mostly from the perspective of the draft choice – in another post, we can get into the details of which free agents might be worth signing at these positions (and others).

Let's dive into Option 1, where the Patriots use their first-round selection on a WR and sign a veteran O-Lineman. In my mind, this works best with Tetairoa McMillan (T-Mac), the Wide Receiver out of Arizona. There are other WRs in this class (Luther Burden, Emeka Egbuka to name a couple), but selecting them with the Patriots' pick (assuming no trade back and the Patriots picking within the top 5) would likely be a reach, and (more importantly) they don’t quite fit the body type I believe the Patriots need (Luther Burden is 5’11’’ to Egbuka’s 6’1’’ and McMillan’s 6’5’’, per PFF). It's ironic that McMillan’s pro-level comp is often Tee Higgins, as Higgins is one of the most talked about targets for the Patriots in the free agency market, but the comparison is apt. T-Mac is NFL-size, quick, and can earn some Yards After Catch (YAC) as well, being physical through contact. Drake Maye coupled with someone like T-Mac - on paper at least - seems to be a fantastic match. Some of Maye's best throws (see his 1st TD to Boutte down the right sideline) have been beautiful throws that hit the receiver in stride, dropped in the bucket 20+ yards down the field. What we haven't seen much this year out of the Patriots (with no real blame on Drake Maye) is any success on balls that are even the slightest bit off. The current Patriots roster (at Wide Receiver, at least) is severely lacking the go-up-and-get-it guy; the "You Got Mossed" guy. Now, of course, there have been several throws made downfield by Maye (particularly late in games) that will make you scratch your head - I'm not at all saying that every throw he's made could have been caught with someone like McMillan on the roster - but on those throws where he just misses - where the ball floats a little bit too high, or the receiver has to fight the defender on a ball that falls a little short - the current offense has seen almost no success. Even further, with a legitimate deep threat like McMillan, it could open the rest of the field up for slot guys like Pop Douglas to thrive, and in turn open up options for Drake Maye (who has already been quite successful on the ground) to scramble efficiently.

The main issue with T-Mac – and this, of course, depends entirely on how the draft order sorts itself out in these final weeks of the NFL season – is that he might not be there once the Patriots are on the board. If things stay as they currently are, with the Raiders and Giants picking ahead of the Patriots, I would not be surprised to see McMillan be available following selections of Shedeur Sanders (Colorado) and Cam Ward (Miami), but it is not even worth delving into that at this point. If, for whatever reason, T-Mac is not on the board when Jerod Mayo is on the clock, I think O-Line is the route to go.

Now for Option 2: drafting an O-Lineman and looking to sign a proven WR (preferably a larger, ball-winning WR like Tee Higgins). This O-Line class has a decent amount of talent at the top, which could provide the Patriots with an opportunity to trade back and still get their guy (similar to the Christian Gonzalez move) if things shake out that way. It’s no secret at all that the current Patriots O-Line is abysmal (and fair warning – while I know PFF is not the be-all and end-all of statistical analysis, I will be referencing them occasionally). Mike Onwenu has been serviceable, graded by PFF as a middling Guard, but Layden Robinson, his rookie counterpart, seems to have been a miss. At Tackle, Vederian Lowe and Demontrey Jacobs both rank in the 10th percentile or worse at their position (per PFF). While Tackle is a premium position in the NFL, it is very hard to evaluate college O-Lineman and project their abilities at Tackle. While there are several tackles in this class that have had success at Tackle at the college level, it is not uncommon to see them move in to Guard upon reaching the NFL, as the game speed and ability of players coming off the outside on defense is simply incomparable to college.

Will Campbell out of LSU, for example, is often highest on big boards as a Tackle, but is likely to move over to Guard, primarily due to some trouble he has had with outside speed at the college level along with having shorter arms (though it is unclear how much of an indicator that truly is). Additionally, while Campbell grades out quite well as a pass blocker, his run blocking does not seem to pop to the same degree, and (purely from a PFF grade perspective) he has regressed since 2023.

Kelvin Banks Jr,. a Tackle out of Texas, though slightly shorter than Will Campbell, carries similar weight, and seems to carry it lightly on his feet. However, his performance against the NFL-caliber Georgia defenders Mykel Williams (Edge) and Jalon Walker (LB) left a lot to be desired. It feels as if NFL quickness on the outside could be an issue if he were to stay at Tackle, and his awareness of his QB’s positioning and movements was somewhat underwhelming.

As of right now (and not to sound like a broken record, this is completely subject to change) this feels like the cut-off. To trade back for the Tackles that follow would likely mean trading back to somewhere in the middle of the 1st round as things currently stand, which is unpredictable at this stage. However, it is still worth discussing a few more Tackles, at least high-level.

Josh Simmons out of Ohio State, who was poised to be perhaps my favorite Tackle in this class, ended his season in Week 5 with knee surgery following an injury sustained against Oregon. Before injury, he certainly seemed to have the physical tools and much of the required quickness, but it is hard to say what the injury will dictate in terms of his ability to perform and develop in his Rookie year, not to mention where his draft stock will sit come April 24th.

Wyatt Milum, a Tackle out of West Virginia who has shown significant progression over the past few years and grades out well both in Pass Blocking and Run Blocking (ranked as PFF’s 6th highest graded Tackle overall), did not go up against particularly staunch competition this year, and also seems to have shorter arms for the position.

Aireontae Ersery (Minnesota) is another big Tackle, with measurements of roughly 6’6’’ and 330lbs, who has proven himself as a college Tackle in the last few years. However, against Michigan’s defensive line (which includes Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant, both high-level NFL talents) Ersery struggled.

Cameron Williams, another Tackle out of Texas, is more of a bet on potential. He is incredibly raw and is the cause of substantial penalty yardage, but has the size and speed to succeed at the next level. However, he may be more of a project than it is worth the Patriots signing on for at this stage in their rebuild.

Jonah Savaiinaea, a Tackle out of Arizona, is a hefty 6’5’’ and 330+lbs, and has shown continuous progression over the last few years. While he has spent some time (and seen success) at Tackle, he has spent much time at Guard as well, which will likely cause him to get pushed to the interior at Guard at the NFL level.

The Patriots will almost certainly have several options when their names are called and they go on the clock in April, likely touting a top-5 pick for the second year in a row, but what I’ve laid out above are, in my view, their best options. In other posts, I will go a bit more into the film study of some of these players, as well as who some potential free-agent targets might be (spoiler alert: Tee Higgins is one of them), but this concludes my high level thoughts about how the Patriots might approach this draft.