Edition 4 - Game Rewind - Patriots vs. Chargers (Week 17)
- Will N.
- Dec 28, 2024
- 7 min read
Updated: Dec 30, 2024
Betting Odds (per CBS Sports)
Spread: Patriots +6
Total: 41.5
Weather: ~40° F, cloudy skies, light rain
Stat Leaders
D. Maye (NE): 12/22, 117 yds, 1 TD
A. Gibson (NE): 12 carries, 63 yds
D. Douglas (NE): 4 recs, 46 yds, 1 TD
J. Herbert (LAC): 26/38, 281 yds, 3 TD
J.K. Dobbins (LAC): 19 carries, 76 yds, 1 TD
L. McConkey (LAC): 8 recs, 94 yds, 2 TD
D. James (LAC): 2 tackles, 2.0 sacks
That might be the worst (or at least the least competitive) Patriots game I can remember watching for some time. The Patriots were routed by the Chargers, with a final score of 40-7 that might actually make the game seem closer than it was.
Let's get through a couple personnel storylines first. Cole Strange got his first career start at Center in his return from injury, and largely was inconsequential. He seemed to snap the ball early on one play, as neither Tackle moved an inch and free rushers pounced on Maye, and he received an Ineligible Receiver penalty in the second half (though that appeared to be more driven by a miscommunication that led Maye to hold on to the ball for too long); broadly, though, I found Strange's performance neither inspiring or disheartening, especially given the performance by the entire team today.
Another odd wrinkle that appeared immediately was Rhamondre Stevenson's status today. It was made fairly clear by the team that Antonio Gibson would be getting the starting nod this week due to Rhamondre's ball security concerns, which were emphasized last week with his league-leading 7th fumble (outside of QBs). Even so, Stevenson trotted onto the field for the first snap of the game, gaining 5 yards on a quick run. However, that would be only one of his two carries for the entire night (compared to Gibson's 12 carries), resulting in a stat line of 2 rushes for 1 yard in the final box score. Again, this decision to have Stevenson on the field for the first snap was inconsequential in the game as a whole, but seems to reflect some of the odd decisions we have seen from this Patriots coaching staff on the field and with personnel this year. If the intent is to send a message on the importance of ball security (which was the intent communicated by the Patriots ahead of the game) it would seem only logical to allow Gibson to step out with the team as the starter on that first drive.
The game itself started off on an encouraging foot, as Anfernee Jennings made some strong plays on the right side of the defensive line and the Chargers were forced to punt, but that was roughly where any positivity deteriorated. The Patriots began the game with a quick 3 and out that featured Drake Maye taking a hard hit to the head, for which he would eventually have to be taken to the locker room for further evaluation (he would later return, sacrificing only one full drive - another 3 and out - to Jacoby Brissett).
The scoring started with a fingertip catch by Derius Davis on the drive following Maye's injury, which seemed to result from an odd miscommunication or defensive structure: Alex Austin and the Patriots appeared to be playing man coverage, but then completely passed Davis off to Dugger, who seemed unprepared and whom Davis got by with ease.
After Brissett's 3 and out followed by a Chargers field goal, another miscommunication or timing mishap gave the ball right back to Los Angeles. On what appeared to be a simple pitch play intended for Demario Douglas (who was in motion between Maye and the backfield Running Back), Maye turned and shoveled the ball into no-mans-land, just out of reach of Douglas and onto the turf, where it was recovered by the Chargers in Patriots territory. Maye later explained in his press conference that he believes Douglas had to adjust his route slightly following a slot blitz from the Chargers. Regardless, the following drive resulted in McConkey's first TD of the night.
The Patriots followed with their only positive offensive drive, which featured an 18-yard reception by Bourne, a 12-yard scramble by Maye, and the Patriots' sole points of the night. Maye drew Bud Dupree (Chargers OLB) offsides, giving the Patriots a free play. Maye took advantage, heaving a ball towards the endzone, where Demario Douglas made a nice adjustment and secured the TD on the goal line.
Halftime came with the Patriots down 20-7, which felt like a win considering the significant gap in performance on the field. However, things would only get worse from that point on. The Patriots drives in the second half would result in 3 turnovers on downs, 2 punts, and the end of the game. On both sides of the ball, there seemed to be a blatant lack of effort from the Patriots and pure dominance from the Chargers. There were penalties (a Roughing the Passer penalty by Yannick Ngakoue at the end of the 1st half gave the Chargers a chip shot field goal to extend their lead, and set the tone for the rest of the Patriots' Saturday afternoon), injuries (along with Drake Maye, Christian Gonzalez would exit with a concussion in the first half, Keion White would get attention, and Daniel Ekuale would hobble off the field, just to name a few), and continuous poor play.
On defense, the Patriots struggled to put Herbert under any pressure at all, tallying zero sacks against an unimpressive Chargers Offensive Line (Herbert has been sacked 40 times this year, 5th most among QBs). In the secondary, Chargers Wide Receivers roamed essentially unchecked. McConkey seemed constantly open over the top, with Herbert missing him on at least one more TD, and Jonathan Jones was constantly beat. On a fourth down early in the game, Christian Gonzalez got beat by Quentin Johnston, gaining 19 yards and keeping the Chargers first scoring drive alive. Just a few plays later, as mentioned, a coverage breakdown between Alex Austin and Kyle Dugger spring Derius Davis free, giving the Chargers their first lead. The combination of Herbert's seemingly endless time in the pocket and the string of coverage busts in the secondary made this easy pickings for a QB of Herbert's caliber; it looked like it was the Chargers against a scout team defense.
On offense, things were not much better. The Chargers tallied 4.0 sacks, multiple of which came from Derwin James in critical situations (both on 4th downs). Under pressure, Maye was still successful to some degree (rushing for 32 yards on 6 attempts), but his decision making was more inconsistent than I've come to expect. As mentioned, he took multiple sacks on 4th down, and threw in front of the sticks to Hooper on another. He certainly was battered, taking several shots after getting passes off as well, potentially explaining some of this variability, but it just didn't feel as if he was particularly sharp. It also felt incredibly evident that the Patriots did not have a receiving threat that could pose any challenge to the Chargers.
This game also served as a harsh reminder of the Patriots lack of success in the draft (apart from a few obvious hits) in recent years. In the 2024 draft, the Patriots and the Chargers executed a pick swap that allowed the Chargers to move up 3 spots to the 34th overall pick (returning the 37th overall to the Patriots). In exchange, the Patriots moved up from pick 137 to 110 (the Chargers subsequently received pick 137). The Chargers, with those picks, selected Ladd McConkey (who has been incredibly successful as a rookie, and tallied 2 TDs and almost 100 yards against the Patriots today) and Tarheeb Still (a Cornerback out of Maryland that has amassed 4 INTs on the season and has been a definitively positive feature of their defense). In turn, the Patriots selected Ja'Lynn Polk (who has experienced issues with drops and has 12 receptions on 33 targets) and Javon Baker (who has yet to grab his 1st NFL reception).
Looking towards the 2025 NFL Draft, there are countless positions of need for the Patriots, not all of which will be able to be addressed in the Draft. There will need to be some work in Free Agency, along with some luck and skill with the draft board. It's not a perfect science, but if the Patriots ever needed luck to fall their way and to draft some players who could contribute immediately, this is the year.
Finally, this game only made Mayo's seat hotter. "Fire Mayo" chants ran through Gillette in the 4th Quarter. I don't know that I have a particularly firm stance on the issue, but in this game I felt that I understood the cries more than I had before. There just seems to be a lot of inconsistency and bizarre decisions being made. Even beyond the choice of starting Rhamondre but then effectively giving Gibson the entire role today, I felt that some of the 2nd half decisions when the game was out of hand held very little logic. In the Patriots' second possession of the 2nd half (they were down 27-7 at the time) Mayo made the decision to go for a 4th and 2 on New England's own 38 yard line. Later to start the 4th Quarter (down 37-7 now), Mayo elected to punt on 4th and 10 from their own 28 yard line (this decision came with roughly 11 minutes remaining in the game). While I personally would have advocated for keeping the offense on the field in both instances, that is not my point; what I struggle with here is the inconsistency. Of course the situations (position on the field, distance for a 1st down, time, etc.) are different, but the urgency feels similar. Down 30 with 11 minutes to go, I'm not sure I can understand trotting the punt team out, despite Baringer's success.
Of course, it seems as if Mayo has ample support in the locker room... but would we really know if he didn't? These are football players, and they are being led by Drake Maye, whose loyalty was one of his premium traits coming out of North Carolina. Of course, there is subliminal messaging to pick up on and lines to read between, but we may never be able to determine the true feelings of the players. Either way, it's the Kraft's who will make this decision, and they seem to hold allegiances with Mayo. I can understand both sides; while Mayo has certainly been underwhelming, he is surrounded by as little talent as anyone in the NFL. Additionally, setting the precedent of giving a coach one year to succeed is dangerous; once you get in that cycle, it can just get increasingly difficult to get out.
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