Edition 5 - The Jerod Mayo Conundrum

A common topic of conversation among Patriots fans throughout the latter half of this 2024 NFL season has been the right path to take concerning current Head Coach Jerod Mayo. This is, of course, Mayo's first year as a Head Coach in the NFL, following service as the Inside Linebacker's Coach between 2019-2023. As Patriots fans well know, Mayo is surrounded by one of the worst current NFL rosters. There are some signs of hope, most notably in the hands of star rookie QB Drake Maye and second-year phenom Cornerback (and recent all-star snub) Christian Gonzalez. Looking towards the 2025 NFL Draft, the Patriots are likely to have one of the most extensive draft boards; the only positions I would confidently say they are unlikely to draft at this point (at least with their earlier handful of draft picks) are Quarterback, Running Back, Center and Tight End.

While Mayo may not be in the best situation, he certainly has also given Patriots fans plenty of reason to have pause about his potential as a Head Coach. Broadly, he has consistently been one of the least aggressive coaches in the league, a sign to many that he may not be willing to take the risks that so often seem required to find success at the NFL level. It's worth mentioning that the Week 16 game in Buffalo featured a fake punt on a 4th & 1 on the Patriots' own 23 yard line, but that game then also featured two 4th & 1 punts from the Patriots' 36 yard line (both while New England still held the lead), as well as a punt on 4th & 5 near midfield while down 10 points with 8 minutes left in the game. So, while some might site that fake punt conversion as a potential turn in Mayo's aggressiveness, the reality is that even within that game his aggressiveness was inconsistent.

More pointedly, the decision-making surrounding personnel and general commentary from Mayo has been suspect this year. Following a 32-16 loss in Week 7 to the Jaguars in London (representing the Patriots' 6th consecutive loss), Mayo was quoted as saying "We're a soft football team across the board". While he went on to explain that he was referencing the Patriots' soft performance in that London game (which, I can't necessarily argue against), that sound-bite became fuel for many of the earliest calls for Jerod Mayo to be fired.

Just last week, after openly stating that Antonio Gibson would be getting the Week 17 start at Running Back over Rhamondre Stevenson in an effort to make a clear statement on the importance of ball security (following Stevenson's 7th fumble in the week prior), Mayo and his staff trotted Stevenson out onto the field, handing him the ball on the first play of the game. Now, Stevenson finished the game with only 2 carries to Gibson's 12, but nonetheless the decision to give Rhamondre the start and first carry seem to indicate a lack of judgment or, at the very least, a lack of consistency with Mayo's own words.

The reality, in my opinion at least, is that Mayo is simply learning on the job. He was promoted from Inside Linebacker's Coach to Head Coach, and now every word he speaks and every decision he makes will be constantly dissected by the media. It's enough to make one reminisce on the often frustrating days of Belichick's dull commentary in which he rarely provided straight answers to media questions.

However, this "figuring it out as we go" mentality that the Patriots seem to be carrying is exactly where the core of the issue lies. The Patriots - a team as deep in the rebuilding cycle as any from a roster perspective - cannot also stand to have a Head Coach that is learning on the job. This is not necessarily Jerod Mayo's fault - there is plenty of blame to put on the Kraft family for handing the keys of this storied team to someone likely ill-prepared to carry them - but that does not absolve him from the poor decisions both in- and out-of-game that he has made.

To further emphasize the point of the Kraft's culpability in putting Mayo in this position, it's important to remember that this is a coaching cycle that featured Mike Vrabel, among many other more qualified coaches and coordinators. Vrabel was fired only three days before Mayo was hired, so it is certainly possible that there was some verbal commitment made prior to the knowledge that Vrabel was an option, but optically it only puts further weight on Mayo's inexperience.

Now, as we enter 2025, Mike Vrabel is still an option for teams with open coaching positions after not receiving a job last cycle. Vrabel, a former Linebacker, won three Super Bowls as a Patriot during his stint in New England between 2001-2008, receiving honors on the Patriots All-2000s and All-Dynasty Teams, as well as induction into the Patriots Hall of Fame. Vrabel served as the Head Coach of the Titans between 2018-2023, amassing a 54-45 (.545) record with an underwhelming roster, featuring three playoff appearances (including one Conference Championship appearance in 2019). Vrabel is considered the top candidate as a Head Coach entering the 2025 cycle, and has already received interest from the Jets (as reported just a couple hours ahead of this writing).

Despite all this reasoning why it could make sense to move on from Mayo, there is also some potential for danger in this as well. To me, the most crucial point here (as I saw raised by the @patr1ots account on Instagram) is the precedent that could be set by firing a coach after one year, and what that could result in.

By firing Mayo after just one season - particularly after a season featuring a roster as weak as this one where there was little chance for success regardless of who was in the Head Coaching seat - the Kraft's (perhaps inadvertently) would be putting whoever would follow Mayo on the hot seat before they even entered the 2025 NFL Draft. When coaches think they might only have one year to prove their worth, it could give them incentive to try to make decisions that are not in the long-term best interest of the team but rather based on what gives them the best chance at keeping their job. In other words, coaches who have only one year to prove themselves are more likely to make decisions benefitting the short-term while potentially damaging the long-term success of the team.

At the end of the day, this decision is in the hands of the Kraft family and any advisors they might employ. If they do make the decision to fire Mayo, my personal hope would be that they do so only with confidence of replacing him with a very high-caliber candidate such as Vrabel, and that they make some guarantee to Vrabel of longer-term job security. If they decide to keep Mayo around, one can only hope that he learns from his mistakes this season and takes a few pages out of Belichick's playbook.